Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions (Record no. 47766)

MARC details
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fixed length control field 01930nam a2200253Ia 4500
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control field MX-MdCICY
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control field 20250625153925.0
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Transcribing agency CICY
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Classification number (OCLC) (R) ; Classification number, CALL (RLIN) (NR) B-13567
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Title Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions
490 0# - SERIES STATEMENT
Volume/sequential designation Basic and Applied Ecology, 8(5), p.387-397, 2007
520 3# - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc. Projections of species' distribution under global change (climatic and environmental)are of great scientific and societal relevance. They rely on a proper understanding of how environmental drivers determine species occurrence patterns. This understanding is usually derived from an analysis of the species' present distribution by statistical means (species distribution models). Projections based on species distribution models make several assumptions (such as constancy of limiting factors, no evolutionary adaptation to drivers, global dispersal), some of which are ecologically untenable. Also, methodological issues muddy the waters (e.g. spatial autocorrelation, collinearity of drivers). Here, I review the main shortcomings of species distribution models and species distribution projections, identify limits to their use and open a perspective on how to overcome some current obstacles. As a consequence, I caution biogeographers against making projections too lightheartedly and conservation ecologists and policy makers to be aware that there are several unresolved problems.
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Topical term or geographic name entry element CLIMATE CHANGE
650 14 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT
650 14 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
650 14 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element EXTRAPOLATION
650 14 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element PREDICTION
650 14 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element SPATIAL STATISTICS
650 14 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODEL
700 12 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Dormann, C.F.
856 40 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS
Uniform Resource Identifier <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ENR4Vv06NNN9y3TLporPaz1p2s_w8dI9/view?usp=drivesdk">https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ENR4Vv06NNN9y3TLporPaz1p2s_w8dI9/view?usp=drivesdk</a>
Public note Para ver el documento ingresa a Google con tu cuenta: @cicy.edu.mx
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Source of classification or shelving scheme Clasificación local
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  Clasificación local     Ref1 CICY CICY Documento préstamo interbibliotecario 25.06.2025   B-13567 25.06.2025 25.06.2025 Documentos solicitados