Potential distribution of wild edible fruit trees under climate change scenarios: promoting food security in a Neotropical region 

 - Regional Environmental Change. 24(2), 75, 2024, DOI: 10.1007/s10113-024-02231-6 .
<br/><br/> Wild edible fruits are important genetic and economic plant resources. They represent a significant livelihood resource for the population and are valuable in coping with climate change and food poverty. This work aimed to model the potential distribution of ten species of wild edible fruits from the state of Veracruz. These species were modelled with present and future climate scenarios. To obtain the projections, we used the MaxLike R library and bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database under climate change scenarios with two radiative forcing trajectories (RCP4.5 and 8.5), and forecasts from three general circulation models (CCSM4, GISS.E2-R and MPI-ESM-LR) for the horizons 2050 and 2070. Then, we explore the spatial coincidence of the potential distribution of the fruits with geographic areas of Veracruz with high levels of marginalization, aiming to support the design of adaptative strategies to climate change. Pithecellobium dulce is the only species that will likely increase its current potential distribution in the future. The rest of the studied species Celtis caudata, Cordia dodecandra, Crataegus mexicana, Hymenaea courbaril, Manilkara sapota, Prunus serotina and Psidium guajava are projected to reduce their distribution area by more than 40%. The species Pouteria sapota and Pimenta dioica, of great economic value, could reduce their geographic area up to 82% and 85%, respectively. Municipalities with low to very low marginalization have the possibility of picking between four and six species on average, with potential of establishing in their surroundings. The analysed species are multipurpose, contribute to food security and are an alternative in adapting to climate change because they are candidates to be included in conservation initiatives while confronting the problem of marginalization. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024. 
<br/><br/><label>Subjects--Topical Terms: </label><br/>AGROECOLOGICAL ROUTES<br/>CARDINAL TEMPERATURES<br/>FOOD RESOURCES<br/>MANAGEMENT<br/>NATIVE SPECIES<br/>SOCIOECONOMIC MARGINALIZATION